Bloomberg data shows that since the Port of Los Angeles announced in October that it imposed fines on carriers who stayed for too long, the number of Ocean freight services containers stranded in the Port of Los Angeles for more than 9 days has been reduced by about one-third.
Shipping and retail executives said that the backlog of US ports is expected to be cleared in early 2022, as the holiday shopping season is over, and many factories in China will be shut down for a week due to the Lunar New Year in February and output has slowed.
Recently, the internationally renowned rating agency Moody's (Moody's) downgraded the outlook of the global shipping industry from "positive" to "stable".
The agency also predicts that after this year's outstanding performance, the total EBITDA of the global shipping industry will decline in 2022, but it will still be much higher than the level before the outbreak.
Moody's stated in an Ocean freight services analysis report that the shipping industry's market conditions are "still healthy", but in the next 12-18 months, "it is unlikely to be better than the current one."
Daniel Harlid, vice president and senior analyst at Moody's, said: "The revenue of container ships and dry bulk carriers has reached record levels, but this revenue will decline from the peak, but will remain high. Limited in 2022 The delivery of new ships will help keep freight rates at a high level."
Moody's believes that the consolidation of liner companies will contribute to the stability of the container shipping industry. In 2008, the capacity of the world's top five liner companies only accounted for 38% of the entire container shipping industry, but this year it has increased to 65%.
Regarding the market supply and demand outlook, Moody's believes that although the current transportation demand is still high and will continue to be strong in 2022, it is expected that the growth rate will slow down, the growth of supply and demand will basically remain balanced, and the growth of demand may be slightly higher than the growth of capacity.
However, in 2022, the capital expenditure of Ocean freight services companies will continue to increase, mainly due to stricter and stricter environmental regulations implemented in the industry. Moody's stated that the demand for newer and more energy-efficient ships will still be the main theme in 2022, and shipping companies will spend a lot of money to renew their fleets.
In addition, according to the statistics of Drewry, the profit of the global container shipping industry this year is expected to reach 150 billion U.S. dollars, setting a new historical record. In 2020, this figure is only 25.4 billion U.S. dollars.